(Original Title: After 30 Years, Will Children Be Jobless? Li Xiaohua: Not Necessarily)


Recently, Jack Ma made another comment: "Don’t let kids experience, play, and avoid poetry and calligraphy. I can guarantee that they won't find a job after 30." This statement quickly sparked heated discussions online and topped the microblogging financial topic list this week.

Which jobs are at risk of being replaced?

With the rapid advancement of the internet and new technologies, certain jobs and even entire industries are facing adjustments or even extinction. We’ve already seen some roles gradually taken over by machines and robots in our daily lives.

Is it possible that children will be unable to find work in 30 years? With the continuous progress of science and technology, which industries are the first to face challenges? And which jobs are more susceptible to replacement by new technologies?

In response, Li Xiaohua, a researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stated: "The current trend of machines replacing humans is largely driven by new technologies, particularly the rapid development of the artificial intelligence sector. Although AI is influenced by three key factors—hardware technology, deep algorithms, and big data—it ultimately requires human oversight to integrate these elements effectively. Therefore, high-tech industries are unlikely to be fully replaced."

Regarding industries most at risk of replacement in the future, Li Xiaohua identified two primary categories: industries with low innovation capacity and those involving repetitive labor.

Will we be completely unemployed? No.

The experts do not concur with Jack Ma's claim that "children will not find jobs after 30."

Li Xiaohua believes that concerns about machines taking over human jobs have been present since the Industrial Revolution. Back then, there were craftsmen who opposed the introduction of textile machines. However, over the past two to three hundred years of societal development, new technologies and machines have replaced old jobs while creating many new opportunities.

Lu Renbo opines that in the future, if someone can find employment, they must adapt and evolve. "The productivity gains from artificial intelligence allow us to enjoy the same quality of service while significantly reducing our working hours. What once took eight hours may soon only take five with assistance from AI, or even just an hour. Fewer people would need to work full-time to sustain their families."

"The issue of excess labor is common in some developed countries. With technological advancements, a family of five might only require one member to work, which would be sufficient to support the household. Other family members wouldn't need to work," Lu Renbo added.

Rational and Calm Reflections on Artificial Intelligence

To help everyone better understand the impact of artificial intelligence, Li Xiaohua shared a parable. A wise man invented a chess game for the king, who loved it immensely. The king promised to reward the inventor, who asked for a unique payment: place one grain of rice on the first square of the chessboard, two on the second, doubling each time. Initially, the king found it easy, but by the second half of the board, the amount was astronomical.

Li Xiaohua explained: "This mirrors the development of artificial intelligence. As AI technology advances, the absolute number of jobs may decline. We may soon enter the 'second half' of the chessboard, where competition between humans and AI reaches a turning point."

Lu Renbo remarked: "Even without artificial intelligence, the world would keep evolving. I think Jack Ma wants to remind us that the world is always changing, and we must identify emerging trends. If we can spot these trends early, I believe our future won't be as grim as he suggests."

"In the future, our free time will increase significantly. We should develop more hobbies instead of focusing solely on work as a means to earn more money," Lu Zhibo said.

In conclusion, while artificial intelligence brings both opportunities and challenges, staying adaptable and open-minded is key to thriving in the future. By embracing change and cultivating diverse interests, we can navigate this era of transformation successfully.

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